Consulting Analytical Models

A model is an analytical tool to help you see how changes in sales, operating assumptions, costs, revenue, or other impacts to your operation change your expected results.

Typically, models are built in Excel but can be done in a variety of analytic or database tools.

Models can provide a grower with a variety of insightful data views to make better decisions and get better results in their business. Some of the models that AGS consultants and partners can help growers with include:

  • SKU Sales Forecast Model
  • Inventory Valuation Model
  • P&L Scenario Forecast Model
  • Cash Flow Forecast Model
  • Item Cost Master Model
  • Other Ad-hoc analysis on grower data

These types of models help assess planned or anticipated changes, future cost or revenue impacts, and inventory valuation insights giving you the ability to see the effects.

Our Consultants

The team at AGS includes several experienced consultants and strategic consulting partners, including our friends at Hathaway & Lane Digital, who can help you build functional, operational analytical models to help gain insight into your operation and sharpen your future plans.

Possessed with a wide range of forecasting expertise and marketing knowledge – across multiple different verticals – our experience analytic capabilities on one side of the organization coupled with the deep grower and operational knowledge and experience from Advanced Grower Solutions provide unparalleled insight and results from our model builds. More importantly, they provide you with more accurate results and a better bottom line.

We leverage “lessons learned” from one model discipline to help build better forecasts season after season, year after year. We are quick to adapt to change and to adjust assumptions accordingly. Every forecast we build provides directional carryforward projections for an additional two years so that you can get a glimpse of any longer-term planning needs.

AGS consultants and partners have the data, analytics, and grower ownership/operational experience and skills that build effective models for your operation.

The Data and the Models

Our consultants can take a grower’s initial data set and clean it up, normalize it, correct formatting or outlier issues, and link it with other data for a more automated synthetic analysis.

We can migrate historical data into model tools and views for clearer understanding and better communication.

We provide model files that you can use to iterate and perform a ‘what if’ scenario analysis.

Some of the Models we can build for you:

  • SKU level multi-period Sales forecast (with our partner Lane and Hathaway)
  • Inventory Valuation model
  • P&L multi-scenario what if model
  • Grower Cash Flow Forecast model.
  • Analytical analysis on grower data such as sales, raw materials, or labor.
  • Item Level Cost Master Model

Model Engagement Composition

  • We start with your historical data – the more years the better – and engage in an operational discussion between management teams to discuss current business and thoughts regarding where the business is coming from and a consensus on where think it is going. We call this Executive Insights and build variables to support this.
  • In the gardening and horticultural arena, we recommend using a Rolling Average Statistical Model that essentially gets smarter with time, reacting to trends even before there is a seismic change in results.
  • We use a variety of data automation tools to speed up aspects of cleaning, aggregation, formatting, normalizing, and migrating for building models.
  • We work with your team for key assumptions, future changes, and other factors (such as economics) that may impact calculations.
  • Our extensive grower operational experience helps further vet results
  • We can build Excel, PDF, Document, or other delivery formats.
  • We can provide additional historical analysis
  • Most forecasts are provided to change/iterate assumptions and see effects.


Example Model Engagements

SKU Sales Forecast Model

AGS is partnering with Ken Lane from Hathaway & Lane Digital to bring a unique and highly valuable forecasting and analysis tailored specifically for growers.

A SKU sales forecast model allows a grower to make various assumptions and adjustments about individual SKU sales for upcoming years and show the results from those assumptions.

Additionally, economic factors can provide additional global or local impact on results and can be included in the analysis. With a SKU sales forecast a grower gets a solid, data-driven go-forward plan tailored to their business and goals and can approach their planning with more confidence and visibility.

Sample SKU Forecast Analysis model views
  • Combines the forecasting expertise and marketing knowledge and experience of Ken Lane with the data and analytic capabilities and deep grower operational knowledge and experience from Advanced Grower Solutions
  • Builds upon your data, history and unique operational situations
  • We crunch the numbers and put together the analytic picture of your business, customers, and market.
  • Provides a SKU forecast that is truly designed to help maximize the potential for your business.
  • We work with your team to walk through and iterate key findings, factors impacting the business and how the market data will shape your plan

Inventory Valuation Model

Allows a grower to value inventory and assess item level estimated profitability more clearly and see the impact of cost changes or other impacts. Also useful for linking with historical or projected SKU sales to see the weighted projected profit margin.

Sample Detailed Inventory Valuation Model views
Sample Detailed Inventory Valuation Model views

  • Based on Inventory list for grower.
  • We can use their costing model or help them build one.
  • Can integrate various standalone data sets to build a synthetic analysis
  • We can account for labor and other allocations
  • Can model “on the ground” value vs final “in the truck” (fully costed) value.
  • We can build an “ICM” – Item Cost Master view for growers at SKU level or SKU Group level with Weighted averages for a given Sales plan.
  • We can accommodate lenders with special calculations for valuation and net orderly liquidation baselines.
  • We look for opportunities to build in variables around inventory turn and gross margin so that you can focus resources where there is more profit


P&L Scenario Forecast Model

Allows grower to easily see future P&L projections based on scenario assumptions

Sample P&L multi-scenario Forecast Model views
  • AGS builds from actual grower P&L data
  • Can provide multiple scenarios with P&L line-item detail
  • Individual line-item control on assumptions for changes YOY
  • User can see multi-year projection base on scenario assumptions
  • Allows for longer-term planning with various P&L scenarios to assess timing need for significant expenditures needed to continue to grow the business
    • Cash Flow planningCapital Expenditure expansionLaborAutomation
    • R&D needs


Grower Cash Flow Forecast

Allows a grower to anticipate future cash or borrowing needs based on model assumptions and parameters.

Sample Monthly Cash Flow Forecast Model views
Sample Monthly Cash Flow Forecast Model views
  • Designed to be a financial projection for cash inflow and outflow planning.
  • AGS can model cash flows from monthly P&L
  • Help make informed decisions year after year in your business
  • Typically, monthly – 3 years
  • We approximate terms for cash receipts.
  • We include their change assumptions for growth and see roll forward period effects.
  • Historical data drives better models
    • Yield history
    • Pricing & production costs
  • Model LOC utilization and payoff with sweep accounts.


Grower Data Analysis

We can also provide full analysis reports to management for improvement recommendations, M&A transactions, and operational assessments.

Sample grower historical Raw Material and Sales Analysis views
Sample grower historical Raw Material and Sales Analysis views
  • AGS can clean and normalize grower historical data
  • Bring forward key analysis on inventory, raw materials, sales, labor and other areas.
  • We can combine and aggregate across data sets.
  • Can do on-site visits and reviews with growers to facilitate deeper understanding of operation, challenges and employees.
  • Present data in clear understandable visuals to facilitate decision making

When Can I Start?

We can usually provide flexible timing. If you want to learn more or have an introductory call about this important new service for growers Contact us today for a discussion about a model engagement for your growing business.